EURUSD Trade Breakdown: How I Traded the New York Open on 18/11/2025

My EURUSD Trade Breakdown on 18/11/2025

Today, I wanted to share a quick breakdown of my EURUSD trade idea and the lessons I learned using SMT, or Smart Money Tool, between DXY and EURUSD. This trade was taken on 18/11/2025 on Tuesday.

1. My Overall Bias: Clearly Bearish

When I started looking at the charts, my daily bias was very clear — bearish.

• There was no major news on the calendar.
• I noticed a lower-timeframe SMT, which supported the bearish move.
• Not in higher smt in DXY, GBP
• Price was reacting nicely to premium/discount areas like BB, IFVG, FVG, and CISD.
• I also marked the Draw on liquidity (DOL) on the 1H and 4H, which helped me see the bigger picture.

From the way price was forming, I expected the market to come back toward the mid-point of the day and then push lower to sweep the previous day’s low.

2. Waiting for SMT on DXY

• One important part of my plan was to wait for an SMT signal on DXY.
• For my setup, I needed the price to show lower SMT — something that confirms the downside continuation.
• This SMT would help me see whether the price still had room to move up before the real drop.
• So I wanted the SMT to confirm support being built for that small upward move.

3. Why I enter before 6am candle Close, 

Here’s where things went wrong.

• I entered based on the 6 AM candle, but this is actually not my entry time.
• To set in proper SMT in DXY and EURUSD
• Entry must be after 6 AM, not before.
• This is a reminder for myself (and maybe for you too):
• Even when the bias is right and the analysis is clean, timing is everything.
• If the entry time doesn’t match your plan, the trade becomes unnecessary risk.

4. What I Need to Fix

So the main mistake in this trade wasn’t the bias, or the SMT, or the levels.
The only mistake was:

• ✔ Wrong candle
• ✘ Wrong timing

If I had waited for my proper time window, the trade would’ve been much clearer and safer.

Final Thoughts

• This is my pure luck to get into TP with this trade
• I realised after I entered 
• So next time, not to be repeated